Showing 1 - 10 of 158
We build a model for bond yields based on a small-scale representation of an economy with secular declines in inflation, the real rate and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that influence long-run inflation but do not influence the long-run real rate or output growth....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012488074
This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475397
calibrate the size of income risk to match panel data on household income dynamics. But, for several reasons, what is measured … as risk from such data may not correspond to the risk perceived by the agent. This paper instead uses data from the … differential precautionary saving motives. I also explore the implications of the fact that the perceived risk is lower than the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014456727
This paper examines the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014457623
This paper examines the role of monetary policy in an environment with aggregate risk and incomplete markets. In a two … optimal allocation. This policy aims to stabilize the savings rate in the economy via the effect of expected inflation on real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003462957
for the future (global savings glut). Low growth is linked to slowing population growth and a declining marginal …, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, interest rates were step by step decreased by central banks to … nihilo and the need of time to produce capital invalidates the IS identity assumed in the Keynesian theory to hold …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858697
risk. Overall, there is robust evidence that the term PRA announcements reduced bank funding costs at both 1-month and 3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003996872
How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the Covid-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? We use a nonlinear VAR framework to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822498
This paper investigates the role of monetary policy uncertainty for the transmission of FOMC actions to financial markets using a novel model-free measure of uncertainty based on derivative prices. We document a systematic pattern in monetary policy uncertainty over the course of the FOMC...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871021
We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235107