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Density-conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models

Andersson, Michael K.; Palmqvist, Stefan Ulf; Waggoner, … - 2010

When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792830

Should central banks be more aggressive?

Söderström, Ulf - 1999

Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584195

Uncertainty about length of the monetary policy transmission lag : implications for monetary policy

Ha, Yuong - 1999

Using stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand s macroeconomic model, this paper examines the implications for monetary policy of uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag. Uncertainty is examined from two perspectives. The first investigates the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585387

Optimal inflation with corporate taxation and financial constraints

Finocchiaro, Daria; Lombardo, Giovanni; Mendicino, Caterina - 2015 - Revised December 2017

How does inflation affect the investment decisions of financially constrained firms in the presence of corporate taxation? Inflation interacts with corporate taxation via the deductibility of i) capital expenditures and ii) interest payments on debt. Through the first channel, inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901390

Reasons for the Demise of Interest : Savings Glut and Secular Stagnation or Central Bank Policy?

Schnabl, Gunther - 2019

for the future (global savings glut). Low growth is linked to slowing population growth and a declining marginal …, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, interest rates were step by step decreased by central banks to … nihilo and the need of time to produce capital invalidates the IS identity assumed in the Keynesian theory to hold …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858697

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During Extreme Events

Pellegrino, Giovanni - 2020

How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the Covid-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? We use a nonlinear VAR framework to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822498

Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Bauer, Michael - 2019

This paper investigates the role of monetary policy uncertainty for the transmission of FOMC actions to financial markets using a novel model-free measure of uncertainty based on derivative prices. We document a systematic pattern in monetary policy uncertainty over the course of the FOMC...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871021

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the Great Recession

Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021

We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235107

Does U.S. Monetary Policy Respond to Macroeconomic Uncertainty?

Gomez, Thomas; Piccillo, Giulia - 2023

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357029

Business cycle dynamics of a new Keynesian overlapping generations model with progressive income taxation

Heer, Burkhard; Maußner, Alfred - 2006

In our dynamic optimizing sticky price model, agents are heterogeneous with regard to their age and their productivity. We find that the business cycle dynamics in the OLG model in response to both a technology shock and a monetary shock are similar, but not completely identical to those found...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261430

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