and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country's actual short …

This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

same inflation or interest rate expectations can differently assess whether the level of the corresponding variable is … and affects durable spending and saving decisions. We also show that the variation in inflation preferences can be …