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Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

income in East Germany. The bias difference in labor market expectations explains part of the East-West German wage gap. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290246

Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes : Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

income in East Germany. The bias difference in labor market expectations explains part of the East-West German wage gap …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358858

Does Short-Time Work Save Jobs? A Business Cycle Analysis

Balleer, Almut; Gehrke, Britta; Lechthaler, Wolfgang; … - 2014

In the Great Recession most OECD countries used short-time work (publicly subsidized working time reductions) to counteract a steep increase in unemployment. We show that short-time work can actually save jobs. However, there is an important distinction to be made: While the rule-based component...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333423

Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?

Andreasen, Martin M.; Caggiano, Giovanni; Pellegrino, … - 2021

This paper uses a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324269

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)

Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020

This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829

Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

of biased expectations for wage bargaining, vacancy creation, worker flows and labor market policies. Importantly, we … relationship between workers' job separation expectations and wages. Instead, a wage setting process with less frequent wage … the difference between firms' and workers' biases matters for the bargained wage but not the size of biases. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290251

Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations

Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; … - 2023

of biased expectations for wage bargaining, vacancy creation, worker flows and labor market policies. Importantly, we … relationship between workers’ job separation expectations and wages. Instead, a wage setting process with less frequent wage … the difference between firms’ and workers’ biases matters for the bargained wage but not the size of biases …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358405

The Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory with Measured Expectations

Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014290126

Estimating the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks at the Zero Lower Bound

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Pellegrino, Giovanni - 2017

We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the ZeroLower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011744928

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Nodari, Gabriela - 2017

We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011744936