inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent …

This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … bound (the US, the UK and Canada) and in those with negative rates (Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland). Using shadow … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term …

January 1993 to December 2020 for five inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and … speed is twice as fast when deviations are small and the credibility of the central bank is higher. Third, inflation …

, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only targeted inflation at times (the US, Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland … official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada …

Moments (TVP-GMM) framework. Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada …, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area …, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets …

, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only targeted inflation at times (the US, Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland … official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada …

January 1993 to December 2020 for five inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and … speed is twice as fast when deviations are small and the credibility of the central bank is higher. Third, inflation …

inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent …

(China, India, Russia, Brazil) on the other. …

. We calibrate such a model to China's trade with the rest of the world and explore two country tariff games using 2005 …