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The EU Self-Surplus Puzzle : An Indication of VAT Fraud?

Braml, Martin - 2020

The world runs a trade surplus with itself: the reported values of exports exceed the reported values of imports. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844666

Quantifying the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement

Felbermayr, Gabriel J. - 2018

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the new EU-Japan free trade agreement (FTA), the biggest bilateral deal that both the EU and Japan have concluded so far. It employs a generalized variant of the Eaton-Kortum (2002) model, featuring multiple sectors, input-output linkages, services...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908655

What Do We Really Know About the Transatlantic Current Account?

Braml, Martin - 2019

Do the U.S. have a current account surplus or a deficit with the EU? Since 2009, official sources disagree: The U.S. Department of Commerce claims a consistent U.S. surplus while Eurostat reports the opposite. International transactions are notoriously difficult to measure accurately, but the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861474

Exploring the international linkages of the euro area : a global VAR analysis

Dees, Stephane; di Mauro, Filippo; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2005

This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276161

On the Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare : New Evidence Based on Structural Gravity and a New Database

Felbermayr, Gabriel J. - 2019

Using a new, global data base covering the years 1950 to 2015, we study the impact of sanctions on international trade and welfare. We make use of the rich dimensionality of our data and of the latest developments in the structural gravity literature. Starting with a broad evaluation by sanction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866418

The Global Sanctions Data Base – Release 3 : COVID-19, Russia, and Multilateral Sanctions

Syropoulos, Constantinos; Felbermayr, Gabriel J.; … - 2022

This paper introduces the third update/release of the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB-R3). The GSDB-R3 extends the period of coverage from 1950-2019 to 1950-2022, which includes two special periods – COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The new update of the GSDB contains a total...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241203

Decoupling Global Value Chains

Eppinger, Peter; Felbermayr, Gabriel J.; Krebs, Oliver; … - 2021

Recent disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) have raised an important question: Can decoupling from GVCs increase a country’s welfare by reducing its exposure to foreign supply shocks? We use a quantitative trade model to simulate GVCs decoupling, defined as increased barriers to global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227605

Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy

Dees, Stephane; Holly, Sean; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; … - 2007

Smith (2007) to test for long run restrictions in each country/region conditioning on the rest of the world. Bootstrapping …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276204

Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution

Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2007

This paper considers a multivariate t version of the Gaussian dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), and suggests the use of devolatized returns computed as returns standardized by realized volatilities rather than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276212

Exploring the intensive and extensive margins of world trade

Felbermayr, Gabriel J.; Kohler, Wilhelm K. - 2004

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time … have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post-World-War- II … growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a ?cornersolutions- version? of the gravity model to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274453