Showing 1 - 9 of 9
Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306033
We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292507
We explore the reaction of the euro area periphery sovereigns' fiscal positions to an unconventional monetary policy shock. We estimate panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models over the period 2010-2018, and identify the shock by imposing sign restrictions. Our results suggest that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843420
We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn’s (1998) approach through Schlicht’s (2003)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346445
The conflicting standpoints on reforming the euro are creating more controversies than practical results. Mistrust between the participants led to short-sighted fiscal discipline that has amplified the economic disturbances. Expert analysis on the proposed reforms is often deficient as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860367
Output gaps (OG) identify economic cycles and the cyclical and structural components in government budget balances. A new simple method for estimating OGs is presented here. The new results are more transparent than those published by the leading economic policy institutions. - The retroactive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892285
This paper studies the design of the policy mix in a monetary union, that is, the institutional arrangement specifying the relationships between the various policymakers present in the union and the extent of their capacity of action. It is assumed that policymakers do not cooperate. Detailing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832189
We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries using quarterly data between 1999Q1 and 2020Q4. Through a country-by-country analysis, the answer to the title question is true. For most countries, (i) the primary budget balance reacts positively to the lagged public debt ratio and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076999
We study the effect of monetary policy surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal stances in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4 for a panel of the 19 countries of the Euro Area. Applying local projection methodology, we find that the effect of monetary shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377601