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COVID-Induced School Closures in the US and Germany : Long-Term Distributional Effects

Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola - 2022

dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US …, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas, while in Germany the regional variation is much smaller. However …, Germany exhibited substantial variation by grade level, with a strong U-shaped patterns that implies that children attending …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291960

Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles

Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715

Estimation and Inference for Spatial Models with Heterogeneous Coefficients : An Application to U.S. House Prices

Aquaro, Michele - 2019

This paper considers the problem of identification, estimation and inference in the case of spatial panel data models with heterogeneous spatial lag coefficients, with and without (weakly) exogenous regressors, and subject to heteroskedastic errors. A quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890630

How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?

Coibion, Olivier - 2020

Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824591

The Effect of U.S. Stress Tests on Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets

Liu, Emily - 2019

This paper shows that monetary policy and prudential policies interact. U.S. banks issue more commercial and industrial loans to emerging market borrowers when U.S. monetary policy eases. The effect is less pronounced for banks that are more constrained through the U.S. bank stress tests,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858696

Estimating Labor Market Slack, U.S. 1994-2019

Komlos, John - 2019

U3, the official unemployment rate, is an inadequate gauge of labor-market slack and the extent to which it misinforms varies substantially over the business cycle. The U6 unemployment rate is usually about 4 percentage points above U3. However, during the Great Recession it exceeded U3 by 7...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859048

Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation : Evidence from U.S. Patents

Autor, David H. - 2019

Manufacturing accounts for more than three-quarters of U.S. corporate patents. The competitive shock to this sector emanating from China's economic ascent could in theory either augment or stifle U.S. innovation. Using three decades of U.S. patents matched to corporate owners, we quantify how...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861408

The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve

Komlos, John - 2019

The official unemployment rate has become an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major challenge for basic research as well as for the formulation of adequate economic policy. We propose a new definition of the unemployment rate by weighing part-time workers with 62.5%,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861417

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Degree of Persistence of US Stock Prices and Bond Yields

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Poza, Carlos - 2021

This paper analyses the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the degree of persistence of US monthly stock prices and bond yields using fractional integration techniques. The model is estimated first over the period January 1966-December 2020 and then a recursive approach is taken to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235116

The Relationship between Prices and Output in the UK and the US

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria; … - 2021

This paper analyses the relationship between CPI and real GDP in both the US and the UK using fractional integration and long-range dependence techniques. All series appear to be highly trended and to exhibit high degrees of integration and persistence, especially in the case of CPI. Since the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235154

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