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COVID-Induced School Closures in the US and Germany : Long-Term Distributional Effects
Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola - 2022
dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US …, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas, while in Germany the regional variation is much smaller. However …, Germany exhibited substantial variation by grade level, with a strong U-shaped patterns that implies that children attending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291960
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Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715
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Estimation and Inference for Spatial Models with Heterogeneous Coefficients : An Application to U.S. House Prices
Aquaro, Michele - 2019
This paper considers the problem of identification, estimation and inference in the case of spatial panel data models with heterogeneous spatial lag coefficients, with and without (weakly) exogenous regressors, and subject to heteroskedastic errors. A quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890630
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Estimating Labor Market Slack, U.S. 1994-2019
Komlos, John - 2019
U3, the official unemployment rate, is an inadequate gauge of labor-market slack and the extent to which it misinforms varies substantially over the business cycle. The U6 unemployment rate is usually about 4 percentage points above U3. However, during the Great Recession it exceeded U3 by 7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859048
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Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation : Evidence from U.S. Patents
Autor, David H. - 2019
Manufacturing accounts for more than three-quarters of U.S. corporate patents. The competitive shock to this sector emanating from China's economic ascent could in theory either augment or stifle U.S. innovation. Using three decades of U.S. patents matched to corporate owners, we quantify how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861408
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The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve
Komlos, John - 2019
The official unemployment rate has become an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major challenge for basic research as well as for the formulation of adequate economic policy. We propose a new definition of the unemployment rate by weighing part-time workers with 62.5%,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861417
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The Relationship between Prices and Output in the UK and the US
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria; … - 2021
This paper analyses the relationship between CPI and real GDP in both the US and the UK using fractional integration and long-range dependence techniques. All series appear to be highly trended and to exhibit high degrees of integration and persistence, especially in the case of CPI. Since the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235154
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The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets, CDS and Economic Activity : Time-Varying Evidence from the US and Europe
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
five European countries (the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) which have been most affected. The sample period covers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211119
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Investment Under Rational Inattention : Evidence from US Sectoral Data
Zorn, Peter - 2020
Macroeconomic and sector-specific shocks exert differential effects on investment in disaggregate sectoral data. The response to macroeconomic shocks is hump-shaped, just as in aggregate data. The effects of sectoral innovations decrease monotonically. A calibrated model of investment with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827670
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Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; … - 2021
This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314848