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Cyclical Income Risk in Great Britain
Angelopoulos, Konstantinos - 2019
This paper establishes new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household income risk in Great Britain and assesses the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this risk. We address these issues using the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) by decomposing stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872060
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Wage Risk and the Skill Premium
Slavík, Ctirad - 2020
, individual wage risk has also increased. This paper proposes a mechanism through which a rise in wage risk increases the skill … premium. Intuitively, a rise in uninsured wage risk increases precautionary savings, thereby boosting capital accumulation … that the rise in wage risk observed between 1967 and 2010 increases the skill premium significantly. This finding is robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824576
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Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle
Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Visschers, Ludo - 2013
We build an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model of unemployment in heterogeneous labor markets. Facing search frictions within markets and reallocation frictions between markets, workers endogenously separate from employment and endogenously reallocate between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291522
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Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the Midas Lens
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Mori, Lorenzo - 2022
We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242149
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Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715
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Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles
Bayer, Christian - 2020
How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice between liquid and illiquid assets. The model enlarges the set of shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841741
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Micro Jumps, Macro Humps : Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated Hank Model
Auclert, Adrien - 2020
We estimate a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model with sticky household expectations that matches existing microeconomic evidence on marginal propensities to consume and macroeconomic evidence on the impulse response to a monetary policy shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842965
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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times : A Replication of the VAR Investigation by Bloom (2009)
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020
This paper revisits the well-known VAR evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (Econometrica 2009(3): 623-685. doi: 10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using Eviews. In a wide sense, we extend his study by working with a smooth transition-VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824829
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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility
Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet; Rangazas, Peter - 2021
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231969
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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy During the Great Recession
Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021
We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235107