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The Euro Crisis and Economic Growth : A Novel Counterfactual Approach
Terzi, Alessio - 2019
warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone … more in the Eurozone periphery than in the standard counterfactual scenario. These results are not dictated by any specific … Eurozone's specificity, which is instead to be traced back to a sharper-than-expected contraction in investment and fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866042
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The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flow Episodes : A Wobbly Link?
Scheubel, Beatrice - 2019
We add to the literature on the influence of the global financial cycle (GFC) and gyrations in capital flows. First, we build a new measure of the GFC based on a structural factor approach, which incorporates theoretical priors in its definition. This measure can also be decomposed in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858195
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International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area
Peersman, Gert - 2019
This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics using a structural VAR model that is identified with an external instrument (i.e. a series of global harvest shocks). The results reveal that exogenous food commodity price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892245
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The US-China Phase One Trade Deal : An Economic Analysis of the Managed Trade Agreement
Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian - 2021
In light of the recent tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the US, interest in quantifying the effects of the so-called phase one agreement has risen. To this end, the paper quantifies the impact of the asymmetric managed trade agreement using such a multi-country open-economy dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239330
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The impact of FX central bank intervention in a noise trading framework
Beine, Michel; De Grauwe, Paul; Grimaldi, Marianna - 2005
In this paper we investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) in a noise trading model with chartists and fundamentalists. We first estimate a model in which chartists extrapolate past returns and fundamentalists forecast a mean reverting dynamics of the exchange rate towards a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261316
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Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective
Dees, Stephane; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa - 2008
New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276218
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Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian model
Dees, Stephane; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa - 2010
This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276272
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Interest Rate Spillovers from the United States : Expectations, Term Premia and Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities
Mehrotra, Aaron N. - 2019
We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of long-term rates in the United...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860570
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We are All in the Same Boat : Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks Through International Trade and Supply Chain
Feng, Alan; Li, Haishi; Wang, Yulin - 2023
Are land locked countries subject to sea-level rise risk? We highlight a new mechanism by which physical climate shocks affects countries’ macro-financial performance: the cross-border spillover effects that propagate through international trade. Basing our findings on historical data between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357033
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Does membership on the UN security council influence IMF decisions?: evidence from panel data
Dreher, Axel; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Vreeland, James Raymond - 2006
We investigate whether temporary members of the UN Security Council receive favorable treatment from the IMF, using panel data for 191 countries over the period 1951 to 2004. Our results indicate a robust positive relationship between temporary UN Security Council membership and participation in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263985