This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risks and the nature of firm heterogeneity. The theoretical results obtained indicate that if firm-specific risk...

Global value chains have fundamentally transformed international trade and development in recent decades. We use matched firm-level customs and manufacturing survey data, together with Input-Output tables for China, to examine how Chinese firms position themselves in global production lines and...

A healthy financial system encourages the efficient allocation of capital and risk. The collapse of the house price bubble led to the financial crisis that started in 2007. There is a large empirical literature concerning the relation between asset price bubbles and financial crises. I evaluate...

This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. In particular, it is shown that under certain...

This paper considers the evolution of global transportation usage over the past half century and its implications for supply chains. Transportation usage per unit of real output has more than doubled as costs decreased by a third. Participation of emerging economies in world trade and...

Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...

We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output...

Reliable supply chains are crucial to the productivity and economic growth of nations. Despite the recognition of its importance, formal research on the contribution of supply chain logistics, including the relative impacts across different logistics dimensions, is less. The importance of supply...

This paper compares drivers of full COVID-19 vaccinations and booster doses across U.S. counties. Booster doses are contingent upon someone receiving the primary doses, and the risk attitudes and propensities to get vaccinated may be different across individuals, along with the supply chain...

We study determinants of COVID-19 vaccine donations from recipients' perspective, especially considering supply chain and institutional weakness (corruption) aspects. Results, based on data from more than 131 nations, show that strengthened supply chains reduced donations. The impacts of...