Showing 1 - 10 of 288
In recessions, unemployment increases despite the—perhaps counterintuitive—fact that thenumber of unemployed workers … finding jobs expands. On net, unemployment rises only becauseeven more workers lose their jobs. We propose a theory of … unemployment fluctuations resting onthis countercyclicality of gross flows from unemployment into employment. In recessions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314859
We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the … coefficients are proportional to the aggregate in all four countries. We also show that the standard deviation of unemployment is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841145
This paper draws on household survey data from countries of all income levels to measure how average unemployment rates … vary with income per capita. We document that unemployment is increasing with GDP per capita. Furthermore, we show that … this fact is accounted for almost entirely by low-educated workers, whose unemployment rates are strongly increasing in GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892040
This paper studies the marginal product of private capital (MPK) with new data and a new framework to obtain a better understanding of international capital allocations and the Lucas Paradox (LP). Our point of departure is three influential studies of MPK's and, based on the most recently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861377
. Furthermore, they fail to allow for quantity rationing and to model unemployment as a catastrophic event. The macroeconomics based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261154
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868
The paper contributes to the growing global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national shocks can be identified within a GVAR framework. The usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated in an application to the analysis of the interactions between public debt and real output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892134
We study how domestic and global output gaps affect CPI inflation. We use a New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework which controls for nonlinear exchange rate movements for a panel of 26 advanced and 22 emerging economies covering the 1994Q1-2017Q4 period. We find broadly that both global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892246
Output gaps (OG) identify economic cycles and the cyclical and structural components in government budget balances. A new simple method for estimating OGs is presented here. The new results are more transparent than those published by the leading economic policy institutions. - The retroactive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892285
New variants of the virus are spreading which, together with seasonal effects, are estimated to be able to raise effective reproduction numbers by up to 90%. Meanwhile, many countries are rolling out vaccination programmes, but at varying speeds. Hence the race is on to beat the variants with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222192