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Commodity Price Effects on Currencies
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Wang, Wenhao - 2022
Using quarterly data on four commodity exporting countries, we study the explanatory power of real commodity prices for predicting real effective exchange rates, with special attention to the separate roles of different sectoral commodity prices during alternative time periods. We find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244327
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International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area
Peersman, Gert - 2019
This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics using a structural VAR model that is identified with an external instrument (i.e. a series of global harvest shocks). The results reveal that exogenous food commodity price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892245
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The Interplay between Oil and Food Commodity Prices : Has it Changed Over Time?
Peersman, Gert - 2019
Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply--resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861447
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Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies
Kapfhammer, Felix; Larsen, Vegard; Thorsrud, Leif Anders - 2021
The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314753
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Globalization in the Time of COVID-19
Sforza, Alessandro - 2020
shock has a considerable impact on most economies in the world, especially when a share of the labor force is quarantined … networks. In this paper we incorporate production barriers induced by COVID-19 shock into a Ricardian model with sectoral … of the disruption in production that started in China and then quickly spread across the world. We find that the COVID-19 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837986
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The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
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How Shocks Affect International Reserves? A Quasi-Experiment of Earthquakes
Jinjarak, Yothin; Noy, Ilan; Ta, Quy - 2021
We evaluate the change in international reserves in the aftermath of significant external shocks. We examine the response of international reserves to shocks by using a quasi-experimental setup and focusing on earthquakes. The estimation is done on a panel of 103 countries over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315174
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COVID-19 shocking global value chains
Eppinger, Peter S.; Felbermayr, Gabriel; Krebs, Oliver; … - 2021
(in contrast to final goods trade) in transmitting the shock. In a hypothetical world without GVCs, the welfare loss due … with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through … countries even gain from the shock due to trade diversion. As a key methodological contribution, we quantify the role of GVCs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315297
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We are All in the Same Boat : Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks Through International Trade and Supply Chain
Feng, Alan; Li, Haishi; Wang, Yulin - 2023
Are land locked countries subject to sea-level rise risk? We highlight a new mechanism by which physical climate shocks affects countries’ macro-financial performance: the cross-border spillover effects that propagate through international trade. Basing our findings on historical data between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357033
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Multinational Production and Global Shock Propagation During the Great Recession
Li, Haishi - 2023
. The MP links significantly amplified the impact of these shocks on the rest of the world, which had a much greater impact …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358332