This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the new EU-Japan free trade agreement (FTA), the biggest bilateral deal that both the EU and Japan have concluded so far. It employs a generalized variant of the Eaton-Kortum (2002) model, featuring multiple sectors, input-output linkages, services...

This paper examines the shortcomings in the UK government's Brexit negotiation strategy which reflected Prime Minister Theresa May's weak political leadership. The Prime Minister focused on securing the short-term political survival of her government amidst turbulent and fractious domestic...

This paper investigates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on trade flows in the case of the European countries. First, an ARDL dynamic panel model is estimated using the PMG method to analyse monthly data covering the most recent period (2019M1-2021M12); then, the GMM and PCSE approaches are...

Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries’ imports from China during 2020. We find that a country’s own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed...

This paper examines how the Covid-19 pandemic affected European trade patterns. Specifically, dynamic panel data models are estimated to assess the effects on exports and imports of various sectors and products (selected on the basis of their trading volume or strategic importance) of the...

This paper examines stock market integration between the ASEAN five and the US and China, respectively, over the period from November 2002 to March 2018. The linkages between both aggregate and financial sector stock indices (both weekly and monthly) are analysed using fractional integration and...

We analyze how trade openness matters for interstate conflict over productive resources. Our analysis features a terms-of-trade channel that makes security policies trade-regime dependent. Specifically, trade between two adversaries reduces each one’s incentive to arm given the opponent’s...

In this paper, we study the role of Confucius Institute in supporting internationalization of Chinese enterprises. Employing a panel dataset containing 66 Belt-Road countries and 75 non Belt-Road countries from 2006 to 2017, we find that the Confucius Institute has had a positive effect on...

This paper investigates whether the rare occurrence of a local election ending in a tie or being decided by a single vote generates informational spill-overs on nearby localities' subsequent elections. First, based on the pivotal-voter theory, we develop a model of costly instrumental voting in...

Does "infant industry" preferential access durably boost export performance? This paper exploits significant trade policy changes in the United States (US) to address this question. The expansion of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) products for less developed countries in 1997 and the...