Since 1997, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has met monthly to set the UK policy interest rate. We examine evidence of systematic patterns in exchange rate movements on MPC days over the first decade of operation of the MPC. Daily data reveal significant differences in...

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...

This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...

We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011–2015. Our...

We analyze total, asymmetric and frequency connectedness between oil and forex markets using high-frequency, intra-day data over the period 2007 - 2017. By employing variance decompositions and their spectral representation in combination with realized semivariances to account for asymmetric and...

FX trade settlement data from CLS provides the most comprehensive view of the opaque market of OTC currency trades. We use the flows of investment funds and non-financial corporates and develop trading signals where the former reflects speculative strategies, while the latter trade for liquidity...

In currency exchange markets, there is a conflict between individual decisions and the socially optimal solution. Whereas agents have a coordination motive to take the same position, at the social level effective market coordination per se is not socially valuable, and the central bank aims at...

We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a...

This paper investigates the relationship between the euro-dollar exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals. First, we develop a simple theoretical model in which chartists and fundamentalists interact. This model predicts the existence of different regimes, and thus nonlinearities in the...

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 had major implications for the foreign exchange market. We review events and implications for exchange rates, volatility, returns to currency investing, and transaction costs. This blow-by-blow" narrative is intended to be a resource for researchers seeking a...