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experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation … eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random … walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the “standard model” suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083478
This paper employs a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model for a monetary union to analyze whether cyclical inflation … the fraction of borrowers and to a lesser extent the loan-to-value ratio - generate inflation differentials that are … characteristics of financial markets should be seen as a possible alternative explanation for the observable inflation dispersion in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274902
This paper studies the design of the policy mix in a monetary union, that is, the institutional arrangement specifying the relationships between the various policymakers present in the union and the extent of their capacity of action. It is assumed that policymakers do not cooperate. Detailing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832189
We build a no-arbitrage model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which can account for the asymmetric shifts in euro area yields during the Covid-19 pandemic. We derive an affine term structure solution, and decompose yields into term premium and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080055
Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859987
We estimate exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. We show that, in addition to the bilateral exchange rate, the exchange rate between the tourism origin country vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar is an important driver of tourism flows, indicating a strong role of U.S. dollar pricing. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083483
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245625
Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor positions in foreign currencies. In periods of increased economic uncertainty, institutional investors hedge their international bond positions, which creates a net hedging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242128
January 1993 to December 2020 for five inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and … speed is twice as fast when deviations are small and the credibility of the central bank is higher. Third, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236279
We derive the optimal exchange rate policy for a small open economy subject to terms-oftrade shocks. Firm owners and workers are risk averse but workers more so. Wages are given or partially indexed in the short run, and capital markets are imperfect. The government sets the exchange rate to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261106