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Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822493
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860298
We revisit and extend the study by Chordia et al. (2014) which documents that, in recent years, increased liquidity has significantly decreased exploitable returns of capital market anomalies in the US. Using a novel international dataset of arbitrage portfolio returns for four well-known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908691
We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general …-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an … important role in shaping volatility at the aggregate level. Moreover, asymmetries in the economic structure sometimes had an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892302
In this article we introduce a stochastic model with a multinational company (MNC) that exploits tax avoidance practices. We focus on both transfer pricing (TP) and debt shifting (DS) activities and show how their optimal level is chosen by the shareholders. In addition, we perform an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251265
smooth their domestic consumption; however, it can also amplify volatility in consumption, depending on the currency in which … external debt portfolios, exchange rate cyclicality, and volatility in consumption of low- and middle-income countries. Since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241998
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270503
This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European currencies and euro/dollar foreign … exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet … parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270529
describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical … evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270556