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Stock Market Linkages between the ASEAN Countries, China and the Us : A Fractional Cointegration Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper examines stock market integration between the ASEAN five and the US and China, respectively, over the period … analysis is carried out for the weekly series to study the impact of the 2007-8 global financial crisis and the 2015 China … exhibit long memory. There is cointegration between the ASEAN five and the US but almost none between the former and China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891049
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Interest Rate Linkages in EMU Countries : A Rolling Threshold Vector Error-Correction Approach
Poghosyan, Tigran; de Haan, Jakob - 2021
This paper revisits financial market integration in the European Economic and Monetary Union, using a threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM) for a fixed rolling window. This approach enables us to analyze the dynamics of transaction costs and detect any co-movements with (policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316906
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Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715
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The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the 'Spanish Flu' for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
Barro, Robert J. - 2020
Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839262
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Sectoral Okun's Law and Cross-Country Cyclical Differences
Goto, Eiji - 2020
We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the US, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to test several hypotheses that may explain why the aggregate Okun's coeffcients are different across countries. Specifically, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841145
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The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty
Easaw, Joshy; Grimme, Christian - 2021
We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562
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Time-Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle : A Comprehensive Investigation
Reif, Magnus - 2021
This paper provides insights into the time-varying dynamics of the German business cycle over the last five decades. To do so, I employ an open-economy time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility, which I estimate by quasi-Bayesian techniques. The reduced-form analysis reveals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214330
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Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes : Costs of Political Misalignment
Bircan, Cagatay; Saka, Orkun - 2021
We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013246909
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Investment Under Rational Inattention : Evidence from US Sectoral Data
Zorn, Peter - 2020
Macroeconomic and sector-specific shocks exert differential effects on investment in disaggregate sectoral data. The response to macroeconomic shocks is hump-shaped, just as in aggregate data. The effects of sectoral innovations decrease monotonically. A calibrated model of investment with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827670
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Labor Market Institutions, Fiscal Multipliers, and Macroeconomic Volatility
Böck, Maximilian; Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Glocker, … - 2022
We study empirically how various labor market institutions – (i) union density, (ii) unemployment benefit remuneration, and (iii) employment protection – shape fiscal multipliers and output volatility. Our theoretical model highlights that more stringent labor market institutions attenuate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083477