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We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010315936
We employ two-stage empirical strategy to analyze the impact of macroeconomic news and central bank communication on the exchange rates of three Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies against the euro. First we estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate based on a monetary model....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317018
This paper addresses difficulties in modelling exchange rates in South Africa. Real exchange rate models of earlier research seem to be sensitive to the sample period considered, alternative variable definition, data frequency and estimation methods. Alternative exchange rate models proposed in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283582
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012581964
. The analysis is conducted for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and … near future, namely central banks are perceived as more credible when sticking to their goal of keeping inflation at a low …, UIP holds better in inflation targeting countries, where monetary authorities appear to achieve a higher degree of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012582090
We build a simple theoretical model to understand why developing and transition economies have increasingly applied anti-dumping laws. To that end, we investigate the strategic incentives of oligopolistic exporting firms to undertake dumping in these economies. We show that dumping may be due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261102
consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates …. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307087
During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, inflation did not fall much. This is known as the missing … inflation during the Great Recession. We show that inflation did not fall much because intermediate goods prices were increasing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307091
We scrutinize the role of capital flows for competitiveness in seven euro-area countries in the context of real convergence and crisis with a specific focus on Greece. The paper extends the seminal Balassa-Samuelson model to include international capital markets. Capital flows are assumed to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011388231
prototypical framework is that voters discount their memories about unemployment and inflation at a constant rate. Yet starting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011388245