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Protectionism and Economic Growth : Causal Evidence from the First Era of Globalization
Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian; Wuthrich, Kaspar - 2021
We investigate how protectionist policies influence short-run economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227482
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The Effect of Islamic Revolution and War on Income Inequality in Iran
Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Kadivar, Mohammad Ali - 2021
Existing research has pointed to the decreasing effect of revolutions and wars on income inequality. It is unclear whether this reduction is the result of ongoing changes within countries before revolutions and wars or if the results are standalone effects. In this study, we focus on the case of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312860
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“Let Them Eat Cake” : Drought, Peasant Uprisings, and Demand for Institutional Change in the French Revolution
Waldinger, Maria - 2023
The paper studies whether a drought in 1788 affected the outbreak of peasant revolts during the French Revolution. I construct a community-level data set with information on local drought severity and peasant uprisings in 1789. Results indicate that those more affected by the drought more often...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014259693
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Years of Life Lost to Revolution and War in Iran
Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza - 2021
This study examines the causal joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq on life expectancy of Iranians for the period 1978–1988 during the revolution and war. I use a synthetic control approach to construct a synthetic Iran based on a weighted average of other Middle East...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228858
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The Asymmetric Impact of Economic Policy and Oil Price Uncertainty on Inflation : Evidence from Developed and Emerging Economies
Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2023
inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260984
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Growth and volatility of tax revenues in Latin America
Fricke, Hans; Süssmuth, Bernd - 2011
Against the background of a notoriously high macroeconomic instability and the need to raise tax revenues to meet the demands of public spending, this paper analyzes the tradeoff between growth and volatility of tax revenues in Latin America. We use a two-step Engle-Granger-type model to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275014
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Priority of Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium
Cockx, Bart - 2020
Based on administrative data of unemployed in Belgium, we estimate the labour market effects of three training programmes at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests, a causal machine learning estimator. While all programmes have positive effects after the lock-in period, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833725
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The Causal Impact of Socio-Emotional Skills Training on Educational Success
Sorrenti, Giuseppe - 2020
We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children's socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837670
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The Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Macroeconomic Causality Regimes
Aksoy, Yunus - 2020
We investigate regime-dependent Granger causality between real output, inflation and monetary indicators and map with U … variables to explain variations in real output and inflation. We provide a comprehensive account of evolution of causal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843426
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Heat and Learning
Goodman, Joshua - 2019
We demonstrate that heat inhibits learning and that school air-conditioning mitigates this effect. Student fixed effects models using 10 million PSAT-retakers show hotter school days in years before the test reduce scores, with extreme heat being particularly damaging. Weekend and summer heat...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892281