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Persistence, Non-Linearities and Structural Breaks in European Stock Market Indices
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper examines persistence, structural breaks and non-linearities in the case of five European stock market indices, namely the FTSE100 (UK), DAX30 (Germany), CAC40 (France), IBEX35 (Spain) and FTSE MIB40 (Italy), using fractional integration methods. The empirical results provide no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866377
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Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
Coibion, Olivier - 2020
of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized … then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future inflation and interest rates … beyond one year do not have any additional impact on forecasts. Exogenous variation in inflation expectations transmits into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840692
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Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations : Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael - 2021
primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive … observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that … information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244244
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Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715
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Estimation and Inference for Spatial Models with Heterogeneous Coefficients : An Application to U.S. House Prices
Aquaro, Michele - 2019
This paper considers the problem of identification, estimation and inference in the case of spatial panel data models … errors. A quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation procedure is developed and the conditions for identification of spatial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890630
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Estimating Labor Market Slack, U.S. 1994-2019
Komlos, John - 2019
U3, the official unemployment rate, is an inadequate gauge of labor-market slack and the extent to which it misinforms varies substantially over the business cycle. The U6 unemployment rate is usually about 4 percentage points above U3. However, during the Great Recession it exceeded U3 by 7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859048
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Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation : Evidence from U.S. Patents
Autor, David H. - 2019
Manufacturing accounts for more than three-quarters of U.S. corporate patents. The competitive shock to this sector emanating from China's economic ascent could in theory either augment or stifle U.S. innovation. Using three decades of U.S. patents matched to corporate owners, we quantify how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861408
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The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve
Komlos, John - 2019
The official unemployment rate has become an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major challenge for basic research as well as for the formulation of adequate economic policy. We propose a new definition of the unemployment rate by weighing part-time workers with 62.5%,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861417
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The Relationship between Prices and Output in the UK and the US
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria; … - 2021
This paper analyses the relationship between CPI and real GDP in both the US and the UK using fractional integration and long-range dependence techniques. All series appear to be highly trended and to exhibit high degrees of integration and persistence, especially in the case of CPI. Since the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235154
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COVID-Induced School Closures in the US and Germany : Long-Term Distributional Effects
Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola - 2022
Almost all countries worldwide closed schools at the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis. I document that schooling time dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291960