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We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834352
first-order approximated solution built by perturbation methods accounts for risk. We show that risk matters economically in … a real business cycle (RBC) model with habit formation and capital adjustment costs and that neglecting risk leads to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834991
We argue that risk sharing motivates the bank-wide structure of bonus pay. In the presence of financial frictions that … make external financing costly, the optimal contract between shareholders and employees involves some degree of risk … to rationalize with incentive theories of bonus pay - but support an important risk sharing motive. In particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892088
What are the incentives for governments to coordinate their policies internationally when there is model disagreement and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and show that uncertainty not only determines the type of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892108
uninsured capital income risk, and suffer from an information-processing capacity constraint. For given attention devoted to … capital income risk, we solve for the optimal consumption-saving choices and show that the expected welfare is increasing with … capacity, assuming a relative risk aversion degree larger than unity. Furthermore, we solve for attention choice and find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892117
risk of firm default …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892132
asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892192
Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826001
How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867014
explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857912