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Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data

Garnitz, Johanna - 2019

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868

ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Cheng - 2023

imbalance and forecast bias. We found that in cases of severe class imbalance, the forecasts need to be adequately biased to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348182

Sectoral Okun's Law and Cross-Country Cyclical Differences

Goto, Eiji - 2020

We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the US, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to test several hypotheses that may explain why the aggregate Okun's coeffcients are different across countries. Specifically, we show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841145

Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States : New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics

Lehmann, Robert; Wikman, Ida - 2023

To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260700

Big G

Cox, Lydia - 2020

"Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government spending is granular, that is, it is concentrated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836206

Cognitive Biases : Mistakes or Missing Stakes?

Enke, Benjamin - 2020

reduced reliance on intuitions. In none of the tasks are very high stakes sufficient to de-bias participants, or come even …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838245

Gender Bias in Teaching Evaluations

Mengel, Friederike - 2019

This paper provides new evidence on gender bias in teaching evaluations. We exploit a quasi-experimental dataset of 19 … women receive systematically lower teaching evaluations than their male colleagues. This bias is driven by male students …' evaluations, is larger for mathematical courses and particularly pronounced for junior women. The gender bias in teaching …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892308

The Interplay of Economic, Social and Political Fragmentation

Bosworth, Steven - 2019

This paper examines how skill-biased growth can generate economic fragmentation (income dis-parities) that give rise to social fragmentation (the adoption of increasingly incompatible social identities and values), which generate political fragmentation (the adoption of increasingly incompatible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859600

Partisan Bias in Inflation Expectations

Bachmann, Oliver - 2019

We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed … based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House's occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860297

Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs

Chernov, Mikhail; Bauer, Michael - 2021

Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222193

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