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Persistence in High Frequency Financial Data
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2022
This paper investigates persistence in high-frequency, intraday data (and also daily and monthly ones) in the case of the EuroStoxx 50 futures over the period from 2002 to 2018 (720 million trade records) using R/S analysis and the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence. The results indicate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242794
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Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; … - 2021
-August 2020, the other from the ECB reporting average monthly values over the period January 1900-August 2020. The estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314848
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Volatility Forecasts for the RTS Stock Index : Option-Implied Volatility Versus Alternative Methods
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871648
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The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Degree of Persistence of US Stock Prices and Bond Yields
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Poza, Carlos - 2021
This paper analyses the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the degree of persistence of US monthly stock prices and bond yields using fractional integration techniques. The model is estimated first over the period January 1966-December 2020 and then a recursive approach is taken to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235116
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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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Nonparametric Identification of Production Function, Total Factor Productivity, and Markup from Revenue Data
Kasahara, Hiroyuki; Sugita, Yoichi - 2021
Commonly used methods of production function estimation assume that a firm’s output quantity can be observed as data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315013
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The Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG : modelling and forecasting
Wdowiński, Piotr; Zglinska-Pietrzak, Aneta - 2005
In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock indexes (DAX and FTSE) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG within a framework of a GARCH model. By applying a procedure of checking predictive quality of econometric models as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277059
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Bitcoin Fluctuations and the Frequency of Price Overreactions
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2019
This paper investigates the role of the frequency of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market in the case of BitCoin over the period 2013-2018. Specifically, it uses a static approach to detect overreactions and then carries out hypothesis testing by means of a variety of statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892294
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Asymmetry in volatility: A comparison of developed and transition stock markets
Wdowiński, Piotr; Malecka, Marta - 2010
describe the most typical features of capital markets like volatility clustering, excess kurtosis and fat tails. As empirical … evidence shows asymmetry is also a prominent feature of stock market returns volatility. The reaction of risk if stock returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270556
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Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters
Heinrich, Markus - 2020
by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility (MF-TVP-SV-VAR). Overall, the MF …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676