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dynamics of oil price volatility by examining interactions between oil market and exchange rate in selected MENA countries …) to examine the presence of volatility spillover between oil prices and exchange rates return series. The econometric … rates, and ii) there is significant evidence of volatility spillovers from oil markets to exchange rate markets in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908723
This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the 1990s until August 2022 for a number of developed and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260984
policy is purely to stabilize output or debt volatility, then our results suggest substantial reductions can be obtained …, especially with respect to output. In stark contrast, however, a formal general equilibrium welfare assessment of the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773638
We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general …-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an … important role in shaping volatility at the aggregate level. Moreover, asymmetries in the economic structure sometimes had an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892302
Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone crisis countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866042
We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with declines in consumption...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315008
experienced relatively low and non inclusive economic growth as well as high levels of macroeconomic volatility. Important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282052
, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004 … results: First, both pro- and countercyclical fiscal policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks … that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264336
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892101