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Adaptive Agents May Be Smarter than You Think : Unbiasedness in Adaptive Expectations
Palestrini, Antonio; Gallegati, Mauro; Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2021
Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics –...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217385
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Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning
Cole, Stephen J. - 2020
their heterogeneity. We exploit survey data on output and inflation expectations by individual professional forecasters. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831652
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The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations : The Role of Preferences
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael J.; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
same inflation or interest rate expectations can differently assess whether the level of the corresponding variable is … and affects durable spending and saving decisions. We also show that the variation in inflation preferences can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013293855
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Partisan Bias in Inflation Expectations
Bachmann, Oliver - 2019
We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed …'s Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013 to June 2018. The results show that inflation expectations were 0 …. Compared to inflation expectations in Democratic-dominated states, inflation expectations in Republican-dominated states …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860297
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Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Mean Expectation and Subjective Uncertainty : Evidence from Households and Professional Forecasters
Piccillo, Giulia; Poonpakdee, Poramapa - 2022
Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309488
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Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836715
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Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?
Adam, Klaus - 2019
Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the asset pricing literature are consistent with the survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892287
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Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-College Periods : New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations
Crossley, Thomas F.; Gong, Yifan; Stinebrickner, Todd R.; … - 2021
Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250048
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Expecting Brexit
Dhingra, Swati; Sampson, Thomas - 2022
The Brexit vote precipitated the unravelling of the UK’s membership of the world’s deepest economic integration agreement. This paper reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit. The 2016 Brexit referendum changed expectations about future UK-EU relations. Studying its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306955
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The Effects of Climate Change on a Small Open Economy
Economides, George - 2019
We investigate the impact of climate change on the macroeconomic performance of a small open economy. The setup is a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy without monetary policy independence in which a climate module that interacts with the economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012888993