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The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
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Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822493
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Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860298
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The Social Cost of Carbon and the Ramsey Rule
Withagen, Cees - 2019
The objective of this paper is to critically assess the use of simple rules for the social cost of carbon (SCC) that employ a rudimentary form of the Ramsey Rule. Two interrelated caveats apply. First, if climate change poses a serious problem, it is hard to justify an exogenous constant growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892228
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The Social Cost of Carbon and Inequality : When Local Redistribution Shapes Global Carbon Prices
Kornek, Ulrike - 2019
The social cost of carbon is the central economic measure for aggregate climate change damages and functions as a metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the level of the social cost of carbon, but mostly neglects a major source of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870643
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The Social Cost of Carbon with Intragenerational Inequality Under Economic Uncertainty
van der Ploeg, Rick; Emmerling, Johannes; Groom, Ben - 2022
A formula is derived for the social cost of carbon (SCC) that takes account of intragenerational income inequality and its evolution with economic growth. The social discount rate (SDR) should be adjusted to account for intragenerational and intergenerational inequality aversion and for risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082790
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Trade, Insecurity, and the Costs of Conflict
Garfinkel, Michelle R.; Skaperdas, Stergios; … - 2022
Typically, economics assumes that property rights over productive resources or goods are perfectly defined and costlessly enforced. The costs of insecurity and the resultant conflict are, however, real and often economically significant. In this paper, we examine how international trade regimes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243087
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Globalization in the Time of COVID-19
Sforza, Alessandro - 2020
shock has a considerable impact on most economies in the world, especially when a share of the labor force is quarantined … networks. In this paper we incorporate production barriers induced by COVID-19 shock into a Ricardian model with sectoral … of the disruption in production that started in China and then quickly spread across the world. We find that the COVID-19 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837986
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How Shocks Affect International Reserves? A Quasi-Experiment of Earthquakes
Jinjarak, Yothin; Noy, Ilan; Ta, Quy - 2021
We evaluate the change in international reserves in the aftermath of significant external shocks. We examine the response of international reserves to shocks by using a quasi-experimental setup and focusing on earthquakes. The estimation is done on a panel of 103 countries over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315174
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COVID-19 shocking global value chains
Eppinger, Peter S.; Felbermayr, Gabriel; Krebs, Oliver; … - 2021
(in contrast to final goods trade) in transmitting the shock. In a hypothetical world without GVCs, the welfare loss due … with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through … countries even gain from the shock due to trade diversion. As a key methodological contribution, we quantify the role of GVCs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315297