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Tax Revenue Forecast Errors : Wrong Predictions of the Tax Base or the Elasticity?

Göttert, Marcell; Lehmann, Robert - 2021

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222194

Race-Blind Admissions, School Segregation, and Student Outcomes : Evidence from Race- Blind Magnet School Lotteries

Cook, Jason - 2019

This paper studies a school district that was federally mandated to adopt a race-blind lottery system to fill seats in its oversubscribed magnet schools. The district had previously integrated its schools by conducting separate admissions lotteries by race to offset its predominantly black...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892247

Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks : The Case of Ghost Games During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Fischer, Kai - 2020

Betting markets have been frequently used as a natural laboratory to test the efficient market hypothesis and to obtain insights especially for financial markets. We add to this literature in analyzing the velocity and accuracy in which market expectations adapt to an exogenous shock: the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823156

Revealed Political Favoritism : Evidence from the Allocation of State Lottery Grants in Israel

Dahan, Momi - 2019

This paper offers a complementary empirical approach that might be better suited to identify the extent of political favoritism in a multi-decision-maker institution than the standard identification strategy. The typical diff-in-diff identification strategy to estimate political favoritism,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860767

Poverty and Economic Behavior : Gambling at Social Security Paydays

Dahan, Momi - 2019

outlets in Israel for two years (2015-2016), I find that gambling revenue spikes at social security paydays. The estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861458

Vaccination Lottery

Kim, Duk Gyoo - 2021

Ohio announced a Vax-a-Million Lottery in May 2021 to encourage people vaccinated. If people may avoid vaccination because (1) they worry about rare but critical side effects or (2) they want to free ride on herd immunity, the vaccination lottery may work better or worse than a lump-sum transfer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216770

Parental Resources and College Attendance : Evidence from Lottery Wins

Bulman, George; Fairlie, Robert W.; Goodman, Sarena; … - 2021

We examine U.S. children whose parents won the lottery to trace out the effect of financial resources on college attendance. The analysis leverages federal tax and financial aid records and substantial variation in win size and timing. While per-dollar effects are modest, the relationship is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314809

How Residence Permits Affect the Labor Market Attachment of Foreign Workers : Evidence from a Migration Lottery in Liechtenstein

Buechel, Berno; Gangl, Selina; Huber, Martin - 2021

We analyze the impact of obtaining a residence permit on foreign workers' labor market and residential attachment. To overcome the usually severe selection issues, we exploit a unique migration lottery that randomly assigns access to residence permits for workers with an employment contract in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322017

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Encourage Gambling? Evidence from the Chinese Welfare Lottery Market

Xu, Can; Steiner, Andreas; de Haan, Jakob - 2023

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a … data on lottery sales in Chinese provinces to estimate the short- and long-run effect of EPU on gambling. Our results … suggest that EPU has a significant positive effect on gambling in the short run. In addition, we find that this positive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262034

The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers : Evidence from a Randomized Lottery

Clemens, Michael A.; Lewis, Ethan G. - 2022

The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014242159