The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

This paper examines price effects related to witching days in the US stock market using both weekly and daily data for three major indices, namely the Dow Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq, over the period 2000-2021. First it analyses whether or not anomalies in price behaviour arise from witching by...

This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of the realized betas within the one-factor CAPM for the six companies with the highest market capitalization included in the Spanish IBEX stock market index. Fractional integration methods are applied to estimate their degree of persistence at the...

This paper analyses the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the degree of persistence of US monthly stock prices and bond yields using fractional integration techniques. The model is estimated first over the period January 1966-December 2020 and then a recursive approach is taken to...

We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the...

This paper examines stock market integration between the ASEAN five and the US and China, respectively, over the period from November 2002 to March 2018. The linkages between both aggregate and financial sector stock indices (both weekly and monthly) are analysed using fractional integration and...

This paper uses a modelling framework which includes two singularities (or poles) in the spectral density function, one corresponding to the long-run (zero) frequency and the other to the cyclical (non-zero) frequency. The adopted specification is very general, since it allows for fractional...