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that this will lead to a dynamic factor model with the dominant unit acting as the factor. The problems of estimation and … documented by Monte Carlo experiments. An empirical application to modelling of real GDP growth and investment-output ratios … dominant effects are found. The results also suggest that increase in investment as a share of GDP predict higher growth rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276215
addition the estimation of the number of factors as well as the factors themselves. Small sample properties of the proposed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316613
This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676
We propose a novel identification strategy to measure monetary policy in a structural VAR. It is based exclusively on known past policy shocks, which are uncovered from high-frequency data, and does not rely on any theoretical a-priori restrictions. Our empirical analysis for the euro area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822501
We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world … outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14% …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834352
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the US, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to test several hypotheses that may explain why the aggregate Okun's coeffcients are different across countries. Specifically, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841145
The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International's Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not comparable over time. The CPI is comparable over time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861457
crisis period. Individual economy estimation results, however, show that the Joneses effect varies across economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316903
growth across the globe. In a large sample of countries, equality in the distribution of income as measured by the World Bank … and by The Standardized World Income Inequality Database are seen to be correlated with economic diversification, the rule … in the World Values Survey, and democracy, all of which are good for growth as reflected in the purchasing power of per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892099