Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 2,008
Cover Image
Behavioral New Keynesian Models : Learning vs. Cognitive Discounting
Meggiorini, Greta; Milani, Fabio - 2021
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with new and old behavioral elements. Agents in the model exhibit cognitive discounting, or myopia: they discount variables far into the future at higher rates than typically implied in the benchmark model. We investigate the model under different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229788
Cover Image
Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning
Cole, Stephen J. - 2020
The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831652
Cover Image
Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
Cover Image
Bounded Rationality, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability
Ilabaca, Francisco - 2019
This paper estimates a Behavioral New Keynesian model to revisit the evidence that passive US monetary policy in the pre-1979 sample led to indeterminate equilibria and sunspot-driven fluctuations, while active policy after 1982, by satisfying the Taylor principle, was instrumental in restoring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866811
Cover Image
Incentive Complexity, Bounded Rationality and Effort Provision
Abeler, Johannes; Huffmann, David B.; Raymond, Collin - 2023
Using field and laboratory experiments, we demonstrate that the complexity of incentive schemes and worker bounded rationality can affect effort provision, by shrouding attributes of the incentives. In our setting, complexity leads workers to over-provide effort relative to a fully rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014346847
Cover Image
The Global Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty
Caggiano, Giovanni - 2020
We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834352
Cover Image
Micro Jumps, Macro Humps : Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated Hank Model
Auclert, Adrien - 2020
We estimate a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model with sticky household expectations that matches existing microeconomic evidence on marginal propensities to consume and macroeconomic evidence on the impulse response to a monetary policy shock. Our estimated model uncovers a central role for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842965
Cover Image
Diverse Risk Preferences and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model
Gomez, Thomas - 2020
We propose a heuristic switching model of an asset market where the agents' choice of heuristic is consistent with their individual risk aversion. They choose between a fundamentalist and a trend-following rule to form expectations about the price of a risky asset. Given their risk aversion,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844420
Cover Image
Partial Norms
D'Adda, Giovanna - 2019
We consider an expanded notion of social norms that renders them belief-dependent and partial, formulate a series of related testable predictions, and design an experiment based on a variant of the dictator game that tests for empirical relevance. Main results: Normative beliefs influence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889682
Cover Image
Arbitrage and Beliefs
Khorrami, Paymon - 2020
We study a segmented-markets setting in which self-fulfilling volatility can arise. The only requirements are (i) asset … valuation ratios stationary (e.g., cash flow growth rises when valuations rise). We prove that when self-fulfilling volatility … susceptible to self-fulfilling fluctuations. The tight theoretical connection between price volatility and arbitrage is detectable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825392