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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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The COVID-19 Pandemic, Policy Responses and Stock Markets in the G20
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2021
This paper analyses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock market returns and their volatility in the case of the … particularly severe Covid-19 conditions decrease returns in the non-G7 countries whilst increase volatility in the G7 ones. Fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211740
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Persistence in the Realized Betas : Some Evidence for the Spanish Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of the realized betas within the one-factor CAPM for the six companies with the highest market capitalization included in the Spanish IBEX stock market index. Fractional integration methods are applied to estimate their degree of persistence at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838240
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Witching Days and Abnormal Profits in the US Stock Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2021
This paper examines price effects related to witching days in the US stock market using both weekly and daily data for three major indices, namely the Dow Jones, SP500 and Nasdaq, over the period 2000-2021. First it analyses whether or not anomalies in price behaviour arise from witching by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323081
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Persistence in the Russian Stock Market Volatility Indices
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2018
volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908651
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Liberalization and Stock Market Co-Movement between Emerging Economies
Beine, Michel A. R.; Candelon, Bertrand - 2021
reforms which aim at opening these countries to trade and financial channels to the rest of the world. The estimation of time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316796
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Investors' Trading Behaviour and Stock Market Volatility During Crisis Periods : A Dual Long-Memory Model for the Korean Stock Exchange
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This study examines the impact of investors' buy and sell trades on Korean stock market volatility across two crisis … on volatility that depends on the type of investor trading and on the phase of the business cycle. Buy orders appear to … be more informative than sell orders since they mostly lower volatility in the pre-crisis periods, while sell and post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845690
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Aggregate Insider Trading and Stock Market Volatility in the UK
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Kyriacou, Kyriacos; … - 2023
This paper examines the relationship between aggregate insider trading (AIT) and stock market volatility using monthly …-run increase in stock market volatility; this can be attributed to a combination of insiders manipulating the timing and content of …-regulated market, it is plausible that the main driver of the increase in stock market volatility should be the information effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347820
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The Frequency of One-Day Abnormal Returns and Price Fluctuations in the Forex
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837673
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The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market
Breinlich, Holger - 2018
We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908678