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Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; … - 2021
This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314848
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Gold and Silver as Safe Havens : A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2022
22 stock indices are analysed applying fractional integration/cointegration methods to daily data, first for a sample …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241989
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Cointegration analysis with mixed-frequency data
Seong, Byeongchan; Ahn, Sung K.; Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2007
We develop a method for directly modeling cointegrated multivariate time series that are observed in mixed frequencies. We regard lower-frequency data as regularly (or irregularly) missing and treat them with higher-frequency data by adopting a state-space model. This utilizes the structure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264085
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Missing Events in Event Studies : Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises
Gürkaynak, Refet S. - 2018
Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and latent factors, reflecting other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908673
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Sales and Markup Dispersion : Theory and Empirics
Mrazova, Monika - 2019
We derive exact conditions relating the distributions of firm productivity, sales, output, and markups to the form of demand in monopolistic competition. Applications include a new “CREMR” demand function (Constant Revenue Elasticity of Marginal Revenue): it is necessary and sufficient for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892151
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Forensics, Elasticities and Benford's Law
Demir, Banu - 2019
Estimates of the trade elasticity based on actual trade policy changes are scarce, and the few that exist are all over the place. This paper offers a setting where an exogenous increase in a border tax can be used to estimate the trade elasticity. It shows theoretically and empirically that if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892309
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The Distribution of Ambiguity Attitudes
Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von; Wogrolly, Axel; Zimpelmann, … - 2022
This paper analyzes the stability and distribution of ambiguity attitudes using a broad population sample. Using high-powered incentives, we collected six waves of data on ambiguity attitudes about financial markets—our main application—and climate change. Estimating a structural stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241994
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Forecasting Inflation with a Zero Lower Bound or Negative Interest Rates : Evidence from Point and Density Forecasts
Anderl, Christina; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2022
This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292499
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Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters
Heinrich, Markus - 2020
expert forecasts and show that the MF-TVP-SV-VAR delivers better inflation nowcasts in this regard. Using an optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676
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Exponent of Cross-Sectional Dependence for Residuals
Bailey, Natalia - 2018
In this paper we focus on estimating the degree of cross-sectional dependence in the error terms of a classical panel data regression model. For this purpose we propose an estimator of the exponent of cross-sectional dependence denoted by α; which is based on the number of non-zero pair-wise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908680