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We study response behavior in surveys and show how the explanatory power of self-reports can be improved. First, we develop a choice model of survey response behavior under the assumption that the respondent has imperfect self-knowledge about her individual characteristics. In panel data, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219070
The ability to uncover preferences from choices is fundamental for both positive economics and welfare analysis. Overwhelming evidence shows that choice is stochastic, which has given rise to random utility models as the dominant paradigm in applied microeconomics. However, as is well known, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892249
We exploit the unique design of a repeated survey experiment among students in four countries to explore the stability of risk preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Relative to a baseline before the pandemic, we find that self-assessed willingness to take risks decreased while the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324220
This paper introduces the probabilistic formulation of continuous-time economic models: forward stochastic differential equations (SDE) govern the dynamics of backward-looking variables, and backward SDEs capture that of forward-looking variables. Deep learning streamlines the search for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345557
extend to distinct PWFs in the gain and loss domains, as under prospect theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350127
This paper examines how skill-biased growth can generate economic fragmentation (income dis-parities) that give rise to social fragmentation (the adoption of increasingly incompatible social identities and values), which generate political fragmentation (the adoption of increasingly incompatible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859600
We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed … based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House's occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860297
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222193
Evidence from hypothetical scenarios strongly suggests the existence of a sunk cost bias, the tendency to ‘throw good … psychological channels underlying such a bias is scarce. We present a laboratory experiment designed to investigate the sunk cost … bias and to test some prominent psychological mechanisms. Inspired by the hypothetical scenarios, we use a two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315181
European countries for more than a decade, we estimate time-varying individual level bias in ‘survival expectations' (BSE) at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311581