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Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model with Human Capital
Malley, Jim - 2011
Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120659
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Rising to the Challenge : Bayesian Estimation and Forecasting Techniques for Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models
Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2019
We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860573
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Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models : Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs
Arias, Jonas; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Rubio … - 2021
We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation and causality assessment in epidemiological models. The key to our approach is the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the likelihood of a generic epidemiological model. Once we have the likelihood, we specify priors and rely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235115
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How Do Financial Crises Redistribute Risk?
Mitchener, Kris James; Vossmeyer, Angela - 2023
We examine how financial crises redistribute risk, employing novel empirical methods and micro data from the largest financial crisis of the 20th century – the Great Depression. Using balance-sheet and systemic risk measures at the bank level, we build an econometric model with incidental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345560
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Reverse Bayesianism : Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events
Becker, Christoph K.; Melkonyan, Tigran; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2021
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Building on a recently developed axiomatic framework to analyze such situations, we test if subjects update their beliefs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484
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Malthus in the bedroom: Birth spacing as a preventive check mechanism in pre-modern England
Cinnirella, Francesco; Klemp, Marc P. B.; Weisdorf, Jacob L. - 2012
We question the received wisdom that birth limitation was absent among historical populations before the fertility …-run effect of living standards on birth spacing in the three centuries preceding England's fertility transition. While the effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288243
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Family Planning and Climate Change
Gerlagh, Reyer - 2019
the interactions between climate change and population dynamics. We develop an analytical model of endogenous fertility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892166
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Fertility Cost, Intergenerational Labor Division, and Female Employment
Yu, Haiyue - 2019
China has set to increase the minimum retirement age, to ease the pressure from pension expenditure and the falling labor supply caused by the aging population. However, policy debates have so far neglected the crucial fact that families in China largely rely on retired grandparents for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892279
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Fertility Changes and Replacement Migration
Aksoy, Yunus - 2020
significant negative statistical relationship between 16 years lagged fertility and the rate of immigration in a panel of 23 … countries, which indicates that immigration compensates for low fertility in the labor market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822494
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Fertility and Modernity
Spolaore, Enrico - 2019
We investigate the determinants of the fertility decline in Europe from 1830 to 1970 using a newly constructed dataset … of linguistic distances between European regions. We find that the fertility decline resulted from a gradual diffusion of … new fertility behavior from French-speaking regions to the rest of Europe. We observe that societies with higher education …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866043