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Malthus in the bedroom: Birth spacing as a preventive check mechanism in pre-modern England

Cinnirella, Francesco; Klemp, Marc P. B.; Weisdorf, Jacob L. - 2012

We question the received wisdom that birth limitation was absent among historical populations before the fertility …-run effect of living standards on birth spacing in the three centuries preceding England's fertility transition. While the effect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288243

Reverse Bayesianism : Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events

Becker, Christoph; Melkonyan, Tigran A.; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2021

Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Building on a recently developed axiomatic framework to analyze such situations, we test if subjects update their beliefs...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484

Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models : Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs

Arias, Jonas; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2021

We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation and causality assessment in epidemiological models. The key to our approach is the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the likelihood of a generic epidemiological model. Once we have the likelihood, we specify priors and rely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235115

Productivity Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Endogenous Growth Model with Human Capital

Malley, James R. - 2011

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120659

How Do Financial Crises Redistribute Risk?

Mitchener, Kris; Vossmeyer, Angela - 2023

We examine how financial crises redistribute risk, employing novel empirical methods and micro data from the largest financial crisis of the 20th century – the Great Depression. Using balance-sheet and systemic risk measures at the bank level, we build an econometric model with incidental...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345560

Rising to the Challenge : Bayesian Estimation and Forecasting Techniques for Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2019

We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860573

Bayesian Estimation of Multivariate Panel Probits with Higher-Order Network Interdependence and an Application to Firms' Global Market Participation in Guangdong

Baltagi, Badi H.; Egger, Peter; Kesina, Michaela - 2022

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for panel-data sets with binary dependent variables where a large number of cross-sectional units is observed over a short period of time, and cross-sectional units are interdependent in more than a single network domain. The latter provides...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300866

Men are from Mars, and Women Too : A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Overconfidence Experiments

Bandiera, Oriana; Parekh, Nidhi; Petrongolo, Barbara; … - 2022

Gender differences in self-confidence could explain women’s under representation in high-income occupations and glass-ceiling effects. We draw lessons from the economic literature via a survey of experts and a Bayesian hierarchical model that aggregates experimental findings over the last...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308102

Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting

Giuntella, Osea; Rotunno, Lorenzo; Stella, Luca - 2022

the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to … greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast …, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083325

Fertility and Family Labor Supply

Jakobsen, Katrine Marie; Jørgensen, Thomas; Low, Hamish - 2022

We study the role of fertility adjustments for the labor market responsiveness of men and women. First, we use … longitudinal Danish register data and tax reforms from 2009 to provide new empirical evidence on asymmetric fertility adjustments … to tax changes of men and women. Second, we quantify the importance of these fertility adjustments for understanding the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083476