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Incentives, Search Engines, and the Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs : Evidence from Representative Online Survey Experiments

Grewenig, Elisabeth - 2019

A large literature studies subjective beliefs about economic facts using unincentivized survey questions. We devise randomized experiments in a representative online survey to investigate whether incentivizing belief accuracy affects stated beliefs about average earnings by professional degree...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890194

Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?

Adam, Klaus - 2019

Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the asset pricing literature are consistent with the survey...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892287

Five Facts About Beliefs and Portfolios

Giglio, Stefano - 2019

We administer a newly-designed survey to a large panel of retail investors who have substantial wealth invested in financial markets. The survey elicits beliefs that are crucial for macroeconomics and finance, and matches respondents with administrative data on their portfolio composition and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866380

Limited Self-Knowledge and Survey Response Behavior

Falk, Armin; Neuber, Thomas; Strack, Philipp - 2021

We study response behavior in surveys and show how the explanatory power of self-reports can be improved. First, we develop a choice model of survey response behavior under the assumption that the respondent has imperfect self-knowledge about her individual characteristics. In panel data, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219070

Using Machine Learning and Qualitative Interviews to Design a Five-Question Women's Agency Index

Jayachandran, Seema; Biradavolu, Monica; Cooper, Jan - 2021

measure agency for 209 women in Haryana, India, first, through a semi-structured interview and, second, through a large set of … close-ended questions. We use qualitative coding methods to score each woman’s agency based on the interview, which we treat … resulting five-question index is as strongly correlated with the coded qualitative interview as is an index that uses all of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235120

Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus : Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists

Avery, Christopher - 2020

This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that have been influential in recent policy discussions. It notes potentially important features of the real- world environment that the standard models do not incorporate and discusses reasons why...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833728

Sectoral Okun's Law and Cross-Country Cyclical Differences

Goto, Eiji - 2020

We estimate Okun's law, the negative relationship between output and the unemployment rate, at the sector level for the US, the UK, Japan, and Switzerland to test several hypotheses that may explain why the aggregate Okun's coeffcients are different across countries. Specifically, we show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841145

Different No More : Country Spreads in Advanced and Emerging Economies

Born, Benjamin - 2020

Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841745

Efficiency of European Universities : A Comparison of Peers

Herberholz, Lars - 2020

The European higher education landscape has become increasingly integrated causing competition among universities that is no longer bound to national borders. In view of this development, the present paper investigates the relative efficiency of 450 European universities between 2011 and 2014....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842974

The Macroeconomic Projections of the German Government : A Comparison to an Independent Forecasting Institution

Lehmann, Robert - 2019

This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892128

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