This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020 …–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices … and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time …

The resurgence of inflation since the late 2021 is now accompanied by a reversal of prospects of growth, reviving fears … prominent role is played by the fall of households' purchasing power, and hence consumption, owing to the inflation shock visà … inflation surprises, independent of restrictive monetary policy, is not present in the standard New Keynesian models for …

root of different inflation rates in Europe including the EU-27. Among others, we study the structural and cyclical factors … descriptive statistics. Subsequently, we set out the possible mismatches between price level convergence and inflation rates … factors on observed inflation rates first in an accounting framework and then by relying on panel estimations. Our estimation …