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becoming terrorists when representing regions rich in oil. This effect is enhanced for groups already enjoying regional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307084
In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model … endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural gas temporarily decouple due to gas specific pricing. We show that gas … the time of the year. Most of the reversion back to oil occurs in spring and summer when demand for gas to heating and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328789
In this paper we estimate a dominant firm-competitive fringe model for the crude oil market using quarterly data on oil … indicate that world GDP is the main driver of long-run oil prices, however, supply (depletion) factors have become more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328808
Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018152
A new procedure to trace the sources of contagion in the oil-finance nexus is proposed. We do this by consolidating … veteran rules derived from the empirical oil literature to filter oil supply, global demand, and oil demand shocks into … for systemic risk assessment in countries vulnerable to oil market shocks. We illustrate the procedure using the dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012179724
We investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock markets of selected oil importers and oil exporters at the … correlations between oil and stock markets returns during turbulent phases in the oil market, for all countries in our sample. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227685
We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) wholesale electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013353419
When natural gas prices are subject to periodic decoupling from oil prices, for instance due to peak-load pricing … address these issues. Our regime switching model uses price data to infer whether pricing is oil-driven (integrated) or gas …-specific (decoupled). We find that UK natural gas (ICE) and oil (Brent) are cointegrated for the majority of the sample considered (1997 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500401
assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531821
power if their country is oil-poor, but can stay in power by bribing the people if their country is oil-rich. Dictators from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290744