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Has the EMU reduced wage growth and unemployment? Testing a model of trade union behaviour
Mikosch, Heiner; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2011
(EMU) led to lower wage growth and lower unemployment in participating countries. Following Grüner's model, monetary … national business cycles which, in turn, leads to higher unemployment risk. In order to counter-balance this effect, trade … unions lower their claims for wage mark-ups resulting in lower wage growth and lower unemployment. This paper uses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274904
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Hyperbolic discounting and positive optimal inflation
Graham, Liam; Snower, Dennis J. - 2011
The Friedman rule states that steady-state welfare is maximized when there is deflation at the real rate of interest. Recent work by Khan et al (2003) uses a richer model but still finds deflation optimal. In an otherwise standard new Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278022
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The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve
Komlos, John - 2019
The official unemployment rate has become an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major … unemployment rate by weighing part-time workers with 62.5%, the proportion of the time they work relative to full-time workers. We … provide new monthly estimates of the unemployment rate for the period 1994-2019 and find that their average during this 25 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141060
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The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve
Komlos, John - 2019
The official unemployment rate has become an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major … unemployment rate by weighing part-time workers with 62.5%, the proportion of the time they work relative to full-time workers. We … provide new monthly estimates of the unemployment rate for the period 1994-2019 and find that their average during this 25 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861417
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The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains
Auer, Raphael A.; Borio, Claudio; Filardo, Andrew - 2017
Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011657108
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Does immigration affect the Phillips curve?: some evidence for Spain
Bentolila, Samuel; Dolado, Juan José; Jimeno, Juan F. - 2007
The Phillips curve has flattened in Spain over 1995-2006: unemployment has fallen by 15 percentage points, with roughly …' labor supply or bargaining power differ. Estimation of the curve for Spain indicates that the fall in unemployment since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273772
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On identification of Bayesian DSGE models
Koop, Gary; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - 2011
In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276281
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Globalisation and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
Kohlscheen, Emanuel; Moessner, Richhild - 2021
We study the effects of globalisation on the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve for CPI inflation, based on a broad panel of 35 countries and controlling for possibly non-linear exchange rate effects. We find that the output gap generally has a significant positive effect on inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799683
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Effects of Inflation Expectations on Inflation
Moessner, Richhild - 2021
We study the effects of professionals’ survey-based inflation expectations on inflation for a large number of 36 OECD economies, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We find that inflation expectations have a significantly positive effect on inflation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799767
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Is the Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve Steeper than It Seems? Heterogeneity and Identification
Schuffels, Johannes; Kool, Clemens; Lieb, Lenard; van … - 2022
Heterogeneity in Phillips Curve slopes among members of a monetary union can lead to downward biases to estimates of the union-wide slope in reduced form regressions. The intuition is that in a monetary union with heterogeneous regional Phillips Curve slopes, the central bank, aiming at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470361