to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing … booms and recessions to check whether a specific indicator that appears to be a good choice on average is also preferable in …

analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …

expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show that a two-state model is not sensitive enough to reliably detect … relatively mild recessions when the Great Recession of 2008/2009 is included in the sample. Adding a third state helps to clearly … distinguish normal and severe recessions, so that the model identifies reliably all business cycle turning points in our sample …

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to … be statistically and economically larger in recessions. A state-contingent forecast error variance decomposition analysis … in recessions. …

paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both … powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work. …