In this paper we model how the existence of different beliefs about the underlying fundamental value of a currency affects the dynamics of the exchange rate. We find that a divergence of beliefs creates the potential for waves of optimism and pessimism that alternate in an unpredictable way....

We test Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) using LIBOR interest rates for a wide range of maturities. In contrast to other markets, LIBOR markets have minimal frictions which could lead to rejecting UIP. Using panel unit root test suggested by Palm, Smeekes, and Urbain (2010) and cointegration...

Using a battery of timely multivariate time series techniques I study the Bitcoin cryptocurrency price series and web search queries with regard to their mutual predictability, Granger-causality and cause-effect delay structure. The Bitcoin is at first treated as a general currency, then as a...

We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...

How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing “lessons learned” in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign...

This paper examines the effect of financialisation of futures markets has on the relationship between crude oil futures and equities by using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model. Specifically, by accounting for the systematic patterns of commodity price volatility, namely, seasonality and maturity effects...

Although real integration conceptually plays an important role for the comovement of international equity markets, documenting this link empirically has proven challenging. We construct a new dataset of theory-guided, relevant measures of bilateral trade in final and intermediate goods and...

We examine how the tail risk of currency returns over the past 20 years were impacted by central bank (monetary and liquidity) measures across the globe with an original and unique dataset that we make publicly available. Using a standard factor model, we derive theoretical measures of tail...

This study examines the impact of investors' buy and sell trades on Korean stock market volatility across two crisis events, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the 2008 global financial crash. We investigate the trading behaviour of domestic vs. foreign and institutional vs. individual investors. Our...

This study examines the impact of investors' buy and sell trades on Korean stock market volatility across two crisis events, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the 2008 global financial crash. We investigate the trading behaviour of domestic vs. foreign and institutional vs. individual investors. Our...