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Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts
Dovern, Jonas; Manner, Hans - 2018
Established tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts based on Rosenblatt probability integral transforms can be manipulated by changing the order of variables in the forecasting model. We derive order invariant tests. The new tests are applicable to densities of arbitrary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872080
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Securitization of mortgage debt, asset prices and international risk sharing
Hoffmann, Mathias; Nitschka, Thomas - 2009
We explore the impact of mortgage securitization on the international diversification of macroeconomic risk. By making … mortgage-related risks internationally tradeable, securitization contributes considerably to better international consumption … countries that do not allow for mortgage securitization. Our results are based on quarterly data from a panel of 16 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264540
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Pooling, tranching and credit expansion
Bougheas, Spiros - 2012
Traditionally banks have used securitization for expanding credit and thus their profitability. It has been well …-rated tranche. This paper builds a simple model of securitization that accounts for the above retention strategies. Banks in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283592
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Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations
Peersman, Gert; Wagner, Wolf - 2014
Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization activities that are orthogonal to real economy and monetary … type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank … using a model of bank risk-taking and securitization. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010352427
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Portfolio Sales and Signaling
Bougheas, Spiros; Worrall, Tim - 2017
A common practice of banks has been to pool assets of different qualities and then sell a fraction of the newly created portfolios to investors. We extend the signaling model for single sales of risky assets to portfolio sales. We identify conditions under which signaling at the portfolio level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011615909
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Asymptotic Variance of Brier (Skill) Score in the Presence of Serial Correlation
Lahiri, Kajal; Yang, Liu - 2015
We propose autocorrelation-robust asymptotic variances of the Brier score and Brier skill score, which are generally applicable in circumstances with weak serial correlation. An empirical application in macroeconomics underscores the importance of taking care of serial correlation. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531771
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Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test: A case study for the euro area industrial production
Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina - 2010
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270868
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Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses
Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
Many questions of economic interest in structural VAR analysis involve estimates of multiple impulse response functions. Other questions relate to the shape of a given impulse response function. Answering these questions requires joint inference about sets of structural impulse responses,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431286
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Real-Time State Space Method for Computing Smoothed Estimates of Future Revisions of U.S. Monthly Chained CPI
Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016
Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011480480
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Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292498