Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 219
Cover Image
Forecasting Euro area real GDP: optimal pooling of information
Hülsewig, Oliver; Mayr, Johannes; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2008
This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264416
Cover Image
Local Information and Firm Expectations About Aggregates
Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081046
Cover Image
Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2004
This paper presents a new approach to estimation and inference in panel data models with a multifactor error structure where the unobserved common factors are (possibly) correlated with exogenously given individual-specific regressors, and the factor loadings differ over the cross section units....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276157
Cover Image
Aggregation in large dynamic panels
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011
This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is … Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is derived, and the limiting behavior of the aggregation error is investigated … which 'observed' inflation persistence at the aggregate level is due to aggregation and/or common unobserved factors. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285540
Cover Image
Modelling the Fiscal Reaction Functions of the GIPS Based on State-Varying Thresholds
Legrenzi, Gabriella Deborah; Milas, Costas - 2013
We extend previous literature on fiscal policy sustainability by introducing non-linear fiscal reaction functions with endogenously estimated state-varying thresholds to capture the behaviour of fiscal policy authorities during "good" and "bad" times. These thresholds vary with the level of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323001
Cover Image
Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
Richards, Simon; Verstraete, Matthieu - 2016
Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555532
Cover Image
Risk Management-Driven Policy Rate Gap
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Nodari, Gabriela - 2018
We employ real-time data available to the US monetary policy makers to estimate a Taylor rule augmented with a measure of financial uncertainty over the period 1969-2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931927
Cover Image
[Sigma]: the long and short of it
Chirinko, Robert S. - 2008
Research on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor - ó - has been proceeding for 75 years. While there is clearly a strong case for the importance of ó in the analysis of growth and other economic issues, much less agreement exists on the value of ó. This paper offers some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264314
Cover Image
Debt sustainability and financial crises: Evidence from the GIIPS
Legrenzi, Gabriella Deborah; Milas, Costas - 2011
We assess the sustainability of the public finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS), allowing for possible non-linearities in the form of threshold behaviour of the fiscal authorities. We provide some evidence of fiscal sustainability when debt gets too high relative to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278867
Cover Image
A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth
Baumeister, Christiane; Guérin, Pierre - 2020
This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425562