This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we...

Numerous theoretical studies have shown that information aggregation through voting is fragile. We consider a model of information aggregation with vote-contingent payoffs and generically characterize voting behavior in large committees. We use this characterization to identify the set of...

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...

We develop a regime switching vector autoregression where artificial neural networks drive time variation in the coefficients of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables and the variance covariance matrix of the disturbances. The model is equipped with a stability constraint to ensure...

In this paper we focus on estimating the degree of cross-sectional dependence in the error terms of a classical panel data regression model. For this purpose we propose an estimator of the exponent of cross-sectional dependence denoted by α; which is based on the number of non-zero pair-wise...

This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from...

This paper analyses the stochastic behaviour of Private Equity returns (a measure of profitability) applying fractional integration methods to an extensive dataset including quarterly data spanning the last four decades for various geographical areas (US, Europe, Asia/Pacific, the Rest of the...

This paper considers a first-order autoregressive panel data model with individual-specific effects and a heterogeneous autoregressive coefficient. It proposes estimators for the moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive coefficients, with a focus on the first two...