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The Macroeconomic Projections of the German Government: A Comparison to an Independent Forecasting Institution
Lehmann, Robert; Wolllmershäuser, Timo - 2019
This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018151
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Determinants of house prices in Central and Eastern Europe
Égert, Balázs; Mihaljek, Dubravko - 2007
This paper studies the determinants of house prices in eight transition economies of central and eastern Europe (CEE) and 19 OECD countries. The main question addressed is whether the conventional fundamental determinants of house prices, such as GDP per capita, real interest rates, housing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273771
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Populism-What Next? A First Look at Populist Walking-Stick Economies
Ball, Christopher; Freytag, Andreas; Kautz, Miriam - 2019
The recent rise in populist governments has led to much work on the question “why now?”. Our work takes the next logical step by asking “what next?”. That is, given populists in power, what should we expect to be the economic consequences of populist regimes. To answer this, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141115
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The Macroeconomic Projections of the German Government : A Comparison to an Independent Forecasting Institution
Lehmann, Robert - 2019
This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892128
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Populism-What Next? A First Look at Populist Walking-Stick Economies
Ball, Christopher P. - 2019
The recent rise in populist governments has led to much work on the question "why now". Our work takes the next logical step by asking "what next?". That is, given populists in power, what should we expect to be the economic consequences of populist regimes. To answer this, we characterize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859994
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Globally Engaged Firms in the Covid-19 Crisis
Constantinescu, Cristina; Fernandes, Ana Margarida; … - 2022
This paper analyzes the initial impact and recovery of globally engaged firms from the COVID-19 crisis. It uses rich … globally engaged firms is their heightened response to the crisis by finding novel ways to adapt supply chains even in the … issue instruments that reduce uncertainty risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013266676
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Survival Strategies under Sanctions: Firm-Level Evidence from Iran
Cheratian, Iman; Goltabar, Saleh; Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza - 2022
Given the importance of firm strategic management in time of crises, this study investigates Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) survival strategies during the international sanctions against Iran. Using data from a questionnaire of 486 firms between December 2019 to September 2020, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177602
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Cyclical Income Risk in Great Britain
Angelopoulos, Konstantinos - 2019
This paper establishes new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household income risk in Great Britain and assesses … the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this risk. We address these issues using the British Household …. We then estimate how income risk, measured by the variance and the skewness of the probability distribution of shocks to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872060
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Asymmetries in Risk Premia, Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Business Cycles
Görtz, Christoph - 2019
A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207
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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility
Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet; Rangazas, Peter - 2021
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231969