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The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble

Brunnermeier, Markus K. - 2020

This paper incorporates a bubble term in the standard FTPL equation to explain why countries with persistently negative primary surpluses can have a positively valued currency and low inflation. It also provides an example with closed-form solutions in which idiosyncratic risk on capital returns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834354

Financial Cycles, Credit Bubbles and Stabilization Policies

Corrado, Luisa - 2019

This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments to mitigate financial bubbles generated in the banking … policy instruments in counteracting financial bubbles. We find that an endogenous capital requirement reduces the impact of a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892165

Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency Vars with Time-Varying Parameters

Heinrich, Markus - 2020

This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive models (VAR) that allow for both structural change and indicators sampled at different frequencies. We extend the literature by evaluating a mixed-frequency time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676

Exponent of Cross-Sectional Dependence for Residuals

Bailey, Natalia - 2018

In this paper we focus on estimating the degree of cross-sectional dependence in the error terms of a classical panel data regression model. For this purpose we propose an estimator of the exponent of cross-sectional dependence denoted by α; which is based on the number of non-zero pair-wise...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908680

Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity

Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Sheng, Xuguang - 2021

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251262

Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; … - 2021

This note examines the stochastic behaviour of US monthly 10-year government bond yields. Specifically, it estimates a fractional integration model suitable to capture both persistence and non-linearities, these being two important properties of interest rates. Two series are analysed, one from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314848

Modelling Profitability of Private Equity : A Fractional Integration Approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; … - 2022

This paper analyses the stochastic behaviour of Private Equity returns (a measure of profitability) applying fractional integration methods to an extensive dataset including quarterly data spanning the last four decades for various geographical areas (US, Europe, Asia/Pacific, the Rest of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080230

Heterogeneous Autoregressions in Short T Panel Data Models

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Yang, Liying - 2023

This paper considers a ﬁrst-order autoregressive panel data model with individual-speciﬁc eﬀects and a heterogeneous autoregressive coeﬃcient. It proposes estimators for the moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive coeﬃcients, with a focus on the ﬁrst two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347822

Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series. An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data

Abberger, Klaus; Graff, Michael; Müller, Oliver; … - 2023

This paper documents a comparative application of algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data sets. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey (BTS) data which are conducted in both monthly and quarterly frequency, where an information sub-set is collected at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262560

Another Look at Cryptocurrency Bubbles

Gronwald, Marc - 2019

This paper deals with cryptocurrency bubbles. First, it points out that a number of recent papers on cryptocurrency … bubbles are awed due to an insufficient consideration of the fundamental value of cryptocurrencies. As even fiat money is said … to exhibit features of bubbles, the same applies to cryptocurrencies. Thus, any empirical investigation into either the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866076

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