shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP … change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. We provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes …

the accuracy of their forecasts. In this paper, we estimate the economic impacts of the official hurricane forecasts in … to establish the social value of improving hurricane forecasts. On the margin, the value of hurricane information is …

in many countries and more needs to be done to make growth more inclusive .In the second part we estimate the trend … the growth rates of GDP trend. For Africa as a hole and for most countries we find relatively low trend growth rates until … the mid-nineties. Since then the trend growth rates rose remarkably - for Africa from 2 % to about 5 %. In the last five …

with a reliable estimation of the trend component at the end of the data sample. To this end we employ time-varying values … of the flexible penalization the trend component of temperature is still increasing, possibly with a somewhat lower pace. …

persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend … labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP). Initially, trend TFP revisions contribute most to the overall PO revisions … while revisions of trend labor, mainly driven by revisions of the non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU), are …

-linear trend along with fractional integration outperforms alternative models over long horizons. …

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and …

In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components … the long-run development during the last 50 years can be represented by a segmented linear trend with a break in the drift …