methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled …

five European countries (the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) which have been most affected. The sample period covers …

dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US …, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas, while in Germany the regional variation is much smaller. However …, Germany exhibited substantial variation by grade level, with a strong U-shaped patterns that implies that children attending …

as predictors. Third, we pool the forecasts in clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of …, and reducing tail risk. Using the same approach for return forecasts, however, does not lead to a consistent …

asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal …