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Heterogeneity in Phillips Curve slopes among members of a monetary union can lead to downward biases to estimates of the union-wide slope in reduced form regressions. The intuition is that in a monetary union with heterogeneous regional Phillips Curve slopes, the central bank, aiming at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241318
How does competition affect information acquisition of firms and thus the response of inflation and output to monetary … uncertainty about inflation as a non-targeted moment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836931
We study how domestic and global output gaps affect CPI inflation. We use a New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework …1-2017Q4 period. We find broadly that both global and domestic output gaps are significant drivers of inflation both in … output gaps on inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892246
Central bank independence (CBI) is a very important precondition for price stability. However, the empirical evidence for a correlation between both is relatively weak. In this paper, this weakness is countered with a) an extended measure of monetary commitment, which includes well-known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317032
interaction of the two elements leads to an inflation bias that is independent of the standard time-inconsistency bias. Secondly … correlated with unemployment, but not with inflation in the respective countries. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291566
This paper examines the causal effects of shifts in international food commodity prices on euro area inflation dynamics …%- 30% of inflation volatility. In addition, large autonomous swings in international food prices contributed significantly … to the twin puzzle of missing disinflation and missing inflation in the era after the Great Recession. Specifically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892245
. One of the key findings is that the eurozone countries in trade with Norway have substantially increased their share of … and beyond the determinants of currency invoicing (i.e., inflation rate, inflation volatility, foreign exchange market … size, and product composition). However, the rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094696
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270868
This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292499
constant inflation. This change has been more pronounced than elsewhere. We argue that this stems from the immigration boom in … 1995 would have led to an annual increase in inflation of 2.5 percentage points if it had not been largely offset by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273772